AUTHOR: Peter Dunne
Political commentators are increasingly suggesting we are headed for a four party political system, comprising Labour and National, with the Greens and the Maori Party in supporting roles. Were that to be the case, the consequences are well worth considering further.
Given that the Greens and the Maori Party by their own admission already agree on 75% of the issues, and the talk of increased co-operation between the two, the immediate likelihood in a four-party Parliament is that the Greens and the Maori Party would be a permanent coalition partner for a Labour-led government. This would especially be so if it were be achieved through overhang situations where the Maori Party consistently won all the Maori electorate seats but secured a far smaller proportionate party vote. In such a situation, the National Party could find itself almost permanently shut out of power, even if, more often than not, it emerged as the largest single party in parliament after an election. Voters would be potentially worse off than even under the two-horse scenario of First Past the Post, because the contest would be just a one-horse race. Being Labour-lite might suit National in 2008, but runs the real longer term risk of making it too politically irrelevant.
All of which makes vital the role of a centre party – like UnitedFuture. Aside from keeping Labour and National honest and on track, the existence of a strong centre party is vital for at least two other reasons. First of these is the desirability of providing a credible coalition option for National so that it will be able to govern from time to time, as the public wishes. And the second is to provide a moderating option for Labour, when the public tires of it being drawn left by the Maori/Green axis.
There is a market in New Zealand for the traditional liberalism (as opposed to the neo-liberalism of parties like ACT) of political philosopher John Locke and the Founding Fathers of the American Revolution; and more recent thinkers and social commentators like Lord Beveridge, the social architect of post-war Britain; or Sir Jonathan Sacks today. The sensible centre voice UnitedFuture promotes draws heavily from their collective thinking.
MMP introduced market forces to politics. It would be the cruellest of ironies if media obsession with the two old crones that discredited FPP ended up making MMP the most monopolistic system of all.